Attack on 6 young people highlights rise in Baltimore's nonfatal shootings

Maggie Trovato, The Baltimore Sun on Jul 20, 2026

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The shooting of six young people outside a South Baltimore convenience store last weekend underscored a troubling divergence in the city’s historic decline in violence: Homicides have fallen sharply this year, but nonfatal shootings have increased.

The six victims, ranging in age from 17 to 21, were shot in the Mount Winans neighborhood. One remained in critical condition Monday as police continued to investigate.

The shooting prompted Baltimore City State’s Attorney Ivan Bates to warn that younger gun offenders are replacing repeat shooters removed from the streets. But researchers cautioned that the shooting and the modest year-to-year increase in nonfatal shootings do not establish a broader shift in who is committing gun violence.

“As we’ve successfully prosecuted and removed many of Baltimore’s repeat trigger-pullers from our streets, they are increasingly being replaced by younger, less experienced individuals who are willing to pick up a gun,” Bates said in a statement to The Baltimore Sun.

By Monday morning, the scene still showed signs of the violence. Investigators were collecting shell casings and documenting the area where the shooting occurred.

Residents nearby declined to discuss the shooting, and employees at a nearby store did not want to comment about what happened.

An increase in nonfatal shootings

Baltimore had recorded 183 nonfatal shootings this year as of Monday morning, compared with 175 at the same point last year, according to police data.

Bates called the increase “deeply concerning.”

Thomas Abt, founding director of the University of Maryland’s Center for the Study and Practice of Violence Reduction, said the increase warrants attention but does not yet establish a trend.

Homicides, meanwhile, have continued to fall sharply. Police had recorded 54 homicides as of Monday, down from 79 at the same point last year.

In Baltimore and other cities, the average age of people involved in serious gun violence is typically higher than the ages of Sunday’s victims, Abt said. Juveniles account for about 10 to 20% of the people involved in serious gun violence.

“They typically have an average age of 27, 28, 29,” said Abt, who is also an associate research professor in the university’s Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice.

Other data backs that up. A Yale study examining gunshot victims in New Haven, Connecticut, found victims averaged about 27 years old, while researchers have found serious juvenile offenders represent a smaller subset of young people involved in crime.

Abt said it’s too soon to tell whether the increase in nonfatal shootings will continue. Short-term changes in the numbers do not necessarily indicate that Baltimore’s broader progress against violent crime is reversing, he said.

No accountability expected

While acknowledging the “tremendous progress” the city has made in reducing violent crime, Bates said that “far too many” young people believe they won’t be held accountable for violent crimes.

He said he fears the state’s Youth Charging Reform Act, which reduces the number of offenses for which minors can be automatically charged as adults, will reinforce that perception. The legislation is set to take effect in October.

Bates did not cite evidence connecting the law, which has not yet taken effect, to Sunday’s shooting. Police have not said who opened fire or whether the shooter or shooters were juveniles.

“If young offenders believe there are no meaningful consequences for carrying an illegal firearm and using it, we should not be surprised when more of them choose to settle disputes with violence,” he said.

Abt cautioned against drawing conclusions about broader trends from individual shootings or several months of data.

Over longer periods, homicides and nonfatal shootings generally rise and fall together, Abt said.

“But in the short term, over a few months, there can be variations,” he said.

Any increase is “cause for concern,” Abt said, but must be considered within the broader decline in city violence.

Sustaining Baltimore’s lower levels of violence will require continued collaboration and vigilance, Abt said.

“Many cities are successful in reducing violence,” he said. “Few cities are successful at sustaining it over many years. That is the challenge for Baltimore.”

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(Chevall Pryce contributed to this article.)